While the prospect of a recession is rattling nerves from Main
Street to Wall Street, a case of recession jitters hasn’t fully engulfed the
recruiting community.
"I definitely see movement on the horizon," says Nancy Albertini,
chairman for executive search firm Patterson Blackstone in San Jose, California,
which recruits high-level executives in the media and Internet sectors. "It is
an upward trend in hiring."
Her upbeat attitude in the face of bleak economic times falls in
line with findings from a report by the Association of Executive Search
Consultants published January 22. In the survey, 75 percent of respondents had a
positive hiring outlook for the coming year. The poll of 250 executive search
consultants was administered between November 28 and January 2.
North American respondents generally were restrained in their
outlook; 58 percent said they are optimistic about the industry, compared with
80 percent of European and 88 percent of Asian counterparts.
AESC president Peter Felix says U.S. executive search consultants
will have different attitudes about the hiring outlook depending on their area
of focus. Those involved in structured finance and mortgage-backed securities
are getting pummeled by the housing credit crunch. Meanwhile, executive search
consultants in health care, utilities and not-for-profits are going full steam
ahead.
"There are sectors that are feeling the pinch, and there are
others that remain unaffected," Felix says. "Overall, our members are telling us
that they’re very busy."
Staffing firms don’t seem to be slowing down either. "We’re not
getting a sense that there is an impending jolt in staffing employment," says
Steve Berchem, vice president of the American Staffing Association in
Washington. The telltale signs of an impending recession are not there, he
notes.
Historically, staffing employment has taken a severe blow during
the three to six months before a recession is officially declared.
"That’s just not happening right now," Berchem says. "The industry
has generally been flat for the last year."
Berchem recalls the last recession, in March 2001. He says
staffing employment was growing at a pace of 6 percent year-over-year. That
changed overnight, when the industry actually began declining—falling by 2
percent—during the fourth quarter of 2000.
"It was a net drop of more than 8 percent," he notes. "The
situation got worse with each quarter."
When the dust settled, 800,000 staffing jobs were lost from the
peak in 2000, when there were 2.8 million employee assignments each day for the
staffing industry, Berchem notes.
Some recruiting experts suggest that even if there were to be a
national recession, it may not necessarily halt hiring.
"We’re living in a very different world," says Francis Luisi,
principal at Charleston Partners, an HR executive recruiting firm in Rumson, New
Jersey. Factors such as employers with global vision and the millions of baby
boomers reaching retirement age could make the traditional recession-related
hiring slump less severe than in past cycles, he explains.
"It is simply too early to speculate on what will happen," Luisi
says.
—Gina Ruiz